Our Recent Posts

Archive

Tags

OSAT 系列之第一篇:Inari 篇 之Osram 和 Avago(Broadcom)的代产


还没看之前 OSAT 系列的可以参考

OSAT 系列之第一篇:以Inari的前身来了解这个领域 篇

续第一篇后,笔者在本篇将会把Inari这家马来西亚市值最大的科技股公司解剖解剖,希望可以帮助读者们。

首先我们先了解Inari业务。若读者们有读了OSAT的第一篇,应该会了解OSAT全部公司都有做IC Packaging(wafer fabrication, assembly and testing) 的业务而这是EMS所无法做的。Inari的业务有分几个部门如下图:

为了让读者们了解Wafer到IC的过程,笔者在网上找到了简单易懂的资料,请自行阅读以下的link。

1)Creating the Wafer

2) The Oxidation Process

3) The Integrated Circuit

4) Drawing Structures in Nano-Scale

5) Etching a Circuit Pattern

6) The Addition of Electrical Properties

7) The Metal Interconnect

8) Electrical Die Sorting (EDS)

9) Packaging and Package Testing

为了简短,让读者一目了然,请看下图。

图 1: 一开始Wafer的原样。

图 2: Process 后Wafer的完成品。

简短说就是,Process后会变成很多小片的电板,然后切割后,包装进黑色的壳,就成为了IC,之后再拿去Test。这就是最主要所以OSAT所做的业务。

目前Inari 50% 的Revenue来自 RF Chips,30%的营业额来自于 Fiber Optics, 将近10%的业务来自于Test and measurement。其他的应该是属于Avago的non RF的device。

Inari最主要的客户有Avago (Broadcom)占了应该80%而Osram应该将近10%至20%吧。现在开始深入了解Inari的客户。

1) Inari目前最主要的业务就是帮Avago(Broadcom) 做Wafer然后最后做成IC 然后 Testing。(Avago 和 Broadcom的RF Filter被应用在全球的Smart Phone(很肯定的就是Apple肯定有用Broadcom的Chips),读者只要记得这个顾客是全球RF Chips制造商的老大就是了。)

2)Inari第二大的业务就是帮Osram(全球名列前茅的LED大哥)提供Iris Scanners的Back-End Service和仪器。为了了解这个业务,请看以下这个2016年 12月 21日的article:

-Inari supply testing equipment and services to Osram for iris-scanning technology.

-Inari does not have the technology to develop or manufacture the actual iris scanners. Instead, it is expected to supply back-end support for companies that do.

-Osram specialises in LED lighting and recently diversified into IR LEDs under its opto-semiconductors arm."

-IR LEDs produce non-visible light that can be directed at eyes to enable sensors to scan the iris.

- Osram is investing RM4.6 billion in an LED chip plant in Kulim. Kulim plant will be used to manufacture relatively large six-inch LED wafers and, potentially, eight-inch wafers as well.

以上的资料都来自以下这个link,这是2016 12月 21日的旧新闻。http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/trade-wise-inari-eyes-iris-scanning-technology

再看最新,近期的新闻 (2017年12月7日)。

看以上的图片,Lidar!!吓死人! Lidar就是目前用在汽车上来预测距离,是未来无人驾驶技术的关键component。

(现在2017年 年尾,Honda 新款的CRV 已经有Honda Sensing的技术,可以在交通阻塞的路上自动跟车,而跟车之间的距离就可以设定为一辆,两辆还是三辆车的距离。这个Honda Sensing技术靠的就是一个Monocular Camera和 Radar。目前Honda的技术只可以探测前面的距离,相信很快我们本地也将会迎来无人驾驶技术了。)

回归正传,看回Osram的最新消息:

"KULIM: Osram has plans to expand its new RM1.82bil LED chip manufacturing facility in Kulim Hi-Tech Park (KHTP) in two additional stages involving investment costs of up to one billion euros (RM4.9bil) including expansion of LED assembly capacities in Osram global factory alliance. Berlien said the plan was to produce LED chips in Kulim in the medium term for premium applications, such as automotive lighting and video projection. In comparison with the four-inch technology, the production systems for six-inch wafers produce 125% more LED chips per wafer in a single cycle, according to Berlien. “Given our enormous recent growth rates of 19% in the LED business, we are pleased to have the new production capacities."

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/11/27/osram-plans-to-invest-up-to-rm49bil-in-new-plant/

再看Osram Kulim的网站,

"Once the final phase of construction is completed in 2020 the factory in Kulim will be the largest and most modern factory for 6-inch-wafers for LED chips in the world. By 2020 the market for general LED lighting is estimated to grow up to 7% annually. With Kulim OSRAM is well placed to become the market leader in this field."

https://www.osram.com/cb/about-osram/kulim-factory/index.jsp

读了以上Osram全部的资料,我们可以知道Osram在2017年将会在Kulim设厂专门做6和8寸的LED-Wafer,也会在Kulim厂做Chips。而Inari做的只是帮忙Osram做Iris Sensor的Testing和back end support。

就2017年而言,Osram这个顾客占Inari的业务可能将近10%而已。可观的是Osram这个顾客的未来发展肯定是非常乐观的,只要Inari能成功抓住这个顾客,帮Osram Test更多的products,跟着Osram成长,Inari绝对会越做越大,越做越好。

最近也有article说Inari有望在3年内又再营业额翻倍,以下是笔者摘下的重点: -While Inari is still in the mode of ramping up its capacity for iris scanners, it is also actively researching facial recognition with its client, preparing to ride on future trends in biometric authentication."

-"Inari’s latest business segment involving assembly and testing jobs for iris scanners started commercial production in the fourth quarter of FY17 (4QFY17). It contributed negligible sales in FY17 but sales contribution is expected to grow to 10% of total sales in FY18 on a capacity ramp-up. http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/inaris-revenue-expected-double-three-years

以上的报道说Inari现在有在和顾客研发face recognition的技术,笔者也曾经读过, Samsung目前的Iris Recognition技术可以轻易被隐形眼镜和照片破解,所以Iris 的技术和Sensor会被利用在Face Recognition的技术上。就以最近发生的时事,笔者直接link到的就是Iphone最近推出的face recognition了(虽然得到的Review并不乐观),但未来若我们大家看到vivo,oppo也应用iris或者face recognition来解锁时,肯定Inari又攀高多一层楼了。

看完Inari的业务和顾客,我们可以总结Inari未来的前途就要看以下的: (1) growth continuing in RF filters, RF Chips 越来越多 (2) ramp-up of test products to Broadcom, an opportunity opened up post its merger with Avago at 2016 (3) iris scan packaging for Osram (4) steady growth in its fiber-optic business with acceleration as 5G approaches. (5) Get another new big potential client(Example: Qualcomm)

好,接下来就要看年报和季度报告了。

笔者从Annual Report里摘下了些重点如下: -Our improved performance was driven by higher demand in both Radio Frequency (“RF”) and opto-electronic products including the new iris scan products manufacturing that the Group added in March 2017.

Other main items contributing to the increase in the Group’s net profit of the current financial year are as follows:

-Net Foreign Exchange gain of RM14.3 million in FY2017 as compared to RM2.5 million in FY2016 derived from favourable foreign exchange rate;

-Receipt of (“R&D”) government grant of RM7.6 million as income recognised by a wholly-owned subsidiary in FY2017;

-Gain on disposal of a quoted investment of RM20.4 million registered in FY2017.

The following factors have, however, mitigated and reduced the net profit:

-Increase in depreciation by RM 16.1 million arising from capital expenditure of RM120.1 million across the Group in FY2017; and

-Increase in tax expenses by RM6.3 million due to overall increase in profit, and the expiry and subsequent renewal of tax-exempt pioneer status of a wholly-owned subsidiary.

Cash OutFlow:

An amount of RM119.6 million invested in capital expenditure paid during FY2017. The capital expenditure was made for the continuous expansion of facilities, increases in production capacity as well as ongoing automation and cost optimisation measures.

下面的重点笔者已经Highlight了,自己读吧。 =D

看了以上3个图片,就是说有增加45架tester,middle of 2018 会增加多 120,000 square的floor space,Philipines的业务在2018年做得更好和在FY 2018会有120 million 的 capex。结论就是很多Expansion,扩充Capacity,很好就是了啦。

接下来看Director们的Remuneration。

FY 2017 的 Net Profit高达227 million,Remuneration才9 million。过关!

接下来我们看一下Director的shareholding:

管理层并没有持有大量的股票,而Inari 30大股东的总股数占了50.46%而已,所以呢这个股票很多的票是漂流在外的,也就是说很多散户都是持有这家股票的。这也蛮符合笔者之前的市场调查结果,调查的结果如下:

笔者的Facebook Post:

读者们所给出的回应 :(谢谢读者们的回应!XD)

(PS:话说,这次的市场调查可以有225个回应,希望下次的可以有300个回应,大家说好不好~~~~ =D)

好,接下来看一下近期的盈利表现。

最近一次的季度告别是营业额新高,盈利新高,不怪得股价的表现和好好哦~

看一下最近一季的Quarter Report:

根据WSTS的统计调查,今年semiconductor的成长率高达17%,而明年还会再成长4.3%。换句话说,明年的成长将会放缓。这个成长会放缓的统计其实早在几个星期前(今天11 Dec 2017)就公诸于世了,所以笔者认为早在几个礼拜前本地的科技股或多或少都已经把这个消息factor in了,所以刚知道这个消息的读者们别自乱阵脚,自己吓自己。

还有一个要注意的事项就是Currency的危机,以下是我从一份research report copy的:

“Inari is a beneficiary of stronger USD and our sensitivity analysis suggests that if USD/MYR strengthens by RM0.10, our net profit estimates would decline by 0.5/1.7%/1.7% in FY17/18/19, should the company fail to pass on the cost to clients.”

所以最近马币走强,Inari或多或少应该会受影响,但是Inari一向来都有从外国import materials的,所以management都有hedging的政策,所以Inari的业绩不会有多少影响的。

除此之外,有参加Inari AGM 的读者们应该比我清楚。

Inari 未来打算会在Batu Kawan设多一间厂,话说会是在未来新建的Broadcom附近。但这一切都还没有具体的详情资料。而且还会保持每季派股息的政策,会保持40%的股息政策。

话说,有些额外的好康:

“In FY2017, Inari began the study and adoption of the Industry 4.0 framework for the future and economic sustainability of its production & operations. Industry 4.0 is the name given to current trend of automation and data exchange in manufacturing technologies to create what has been termed a “smart factory”.”

(笔者不是在卖自己的公司,不要误会。看到Industry 4.0,就要想到,Vitrox啦,Automation King! XD)

笔者对Inari的总结就是: OSAT系列的老大Inari,未来肯定还是很可观的,一直扩充的Capacity,只会一直的把营业额往上推,就好似手套业的Harta一般。2018的下半年将会看到Inari的extra new production capacity开始贡献盈利,到时营业额又新高,盈利新高,股价新高?

由于Inari的director们没持有50%以上,不符合笔者要求,笔者只好站一旁看大家赚钱好了。=(

"山不转路转,路不转人转",这种好股票,当股价有回调15%-20%时,读者们请和笔者说一声。那时或许就是神可怜旁观的笔者,给笔者一个买入此绝世好股的机会啊。

纯粹个人意见,希望可以帮到大家,买卖自负。(笔者近期比较累和忙碌,所以比较慢才做完这份Research,希望读者们能见谅,感恩。)

反思者 上

欢迎大家互相交流分享,喜欢笔者的可以like这个page

https://www.facebook.com/Food-For-Thought-%E5%8F%8D%E6%80%9D%E8%80%85-165594653947325/

若读者不想错过笔者的每一篇文章,可以填入自己的email 如下来subscribe笔者的notification,这样每次笔者发新文章时就会发一个notification到你们的email address了。

1)先去笔者网站的主页 https://limwy94.wixsite.com/foodforthought

2)然后填写email and submit就好了。 XD