科技与建筑股: MMode今年下半年能否有望得到更多Titijaya的project？
读者们还没读过Mmode系列的文章的可以看回以下的link。
今天，主要要探讨的是Mmode的construction大顾客Titijaya。目前，住宅发展仍Titijaya财务表现的主要支柱。
我们最主要了解Titijaya的目的是因为如果Titijaya有越多的发展计划的话，Mmode就有更高的机会得到新project，增加Mmode的获利能力。
26 Jun 2018，南洋商报有篇报道说：
"帝亿置地(Titijaya)拥有208英亩的土地，大部分位于巴生谷，发展总值124亿令吉，能确保获利能力，激励未来增长。不过，我们对产业领域保持谨慎，因为房价普遍仍在上涨，而银行的贷款拒绝率较高，以及生活成本提高，让产业认购率跟着走跌，连带影响帝亿置地的营业额。因此，我们将截止6月的2018财年净利预估，下调2.6%；而2019至2020财年的财测，则分别下调15.7%和19.2%。目标价也跟着下调31%，从原本的73仙，降至50仙。" https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/nanyang_stock_expert/162729 2 July 2018, The Edge 有报道说： “The zero-rated GST does have a positive impact on the overall sales of property products, particularly commercial property as the 6% savings can be quite substantial to the purchasers.“With the new government formed, we believe the government will look into the property industry once other policies that are of higher priority have been settled. We believe affordable homes will still be a focus area for the government, as this is one of the most challenging issues plaguing Malaysia,” Lim said, adding this will also benefit Titijaya, which he believes is well-positioned to meet demands in this segment. As at 9MFY18, Titijaya had achieved total sales of RM284 million, mainly contributed by the first phase of its 3rdNvenue project in Jalan Ampang, the H2O development in Ara Damansara, and The Shore in Sabah. Sales in the remaining quarter of FY18 will also be driven by the same projects. Its unbilled sales as at end-March stood at RM380 million. In the second half of 2018, Titijaya intends to launch three projects with a combined gross development value of RM826 million, comprising two developments in Kuala Lumpur and one in Subang, Selangor. They are: the second phase of 3rdNvenue which has a RM338 million GDV; Riveria City at KL Sentral (RM320 million), and Damaisuria in Subang (RM168 million).
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/fy18-see-flat-profit-growth-despite-stronger-9m-%E2%80%94-titijaya 从公司的年报里，可以看到Titijaya有和几家公司一同合作：
CREC (China Railway Engineering Corporation 中国铁路工程有限公司) Titijaya expanded this partnership, firstly in 3rdNvenue in 2016, followed by The Shore @ Sabah in 2017. We selected CREC as our partner because of its international experience and expertise in the construction industry. Having CREC as a JV partner enabled us to capitalise on new opportunities and to tap on new markets for Titijaya as well as our first venture into East Malaysia.
Bina Puri Riveria City @ KL Sentral is a joint venture project with Bina Puri and Prasarana, (话说，Riveria City in KL Sentral and 3rdNvenue in Ampang, which have an average unit price of RM604,000 and RM710,000 respectively (属于可负担房屋) . These two projects consist of affordable and medium-cost units that are resilient to the demand risk.)
小project的合作伙伴 公司的Jalan Stonor Project with Lembaga Getah Malaysia, Bukit Bintang Project with Ministry of Education Malaysia, and Areca @ Batu Maung, Penang with Lembaga Kemajuan Ikan Malaysia
整片文章的重点如下： Second half of 2018, Titijaya intends to launch three projects with a combined gross development value of RM826 million 1) Second phase of 3rdNvenue RM338 million 2) Riveria City at KL Sentral (RM320 million) 3) Damaisuria in Subang (RM168 million). 3rdNvenue 的project将会和CREC合作，Riveria City将会与Bina Puri合作，唯一一个Mmode有机会可以分到一点羹的就只有Damaisuria in Subang这个Gross Development value值 RM 168 million的project 了。话说回来，Mmode上个月 Jun 8 2018得到的RM260.57 million contract (build a 25-storey mixed commercial development at Jalan Tun Fuad Stephens in Kota Kinabalu, Sabah.)位于Sabah，所以和Damaisuria的project没有关系。
另外呢，Titijaya 目前的Ongoing 和 Upcoming Project 如下:
以现在Mmode刚刚进军Construction行业来看，应该还没有什么竞争优势。只有等笔者有机会和管理层沟通后，才能更一步了解公司了。笔者猜想说，Mmode下半年应该不会得到大project了，就算如此，Mmode上个月 Jun 8 2018得到的RM260.57 million contract (Contribute Profit to FY19 to FY21)，也就是说平均一年有 RM85 million的revenue，这笔数目足够让Mmode的成长狂飙了。
与上篇一样，对于Mmode的股票，笔者还是有以下几个疑问：
1) 公司目前的Cash那么多，未来有什么plan？ 2)公司目前tender 的 order有多少？ 3)公司construction部门除了Titijaya PWC Sdn Bhd外，有没有本事拿到别的公司的order？
4)公司的construction segment有什么 competitive advantage？
5)2018 年6月22日的Direct Business Transaction, Lim Thean Keong以57 cents卖出了31.274%股份，但是Ong Chee Koen只是买了14.155%，另外的将近17%股份到底被谁买下了呢？
6)"Content & Value Added Services" segment实际上是有什么service和产品?
借此机会，向David Lim致谢，经常分享很多知识给大家。David也有写一篇关于Mmode的文章，里面还有附上 Titijaya H2O的project进展，对Mmode有兴趣的朋友绝对需要读一读。 http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/lionind/163250 结论： 短期来说，这个月公布的季度报告里，net profit大概估计会是总共："Content & Value Added Services" segment 的 0.8 至 1 million + Construction segment 的 0.78 milion =1.56 million 至 1.58 million。换算过来，EPS 将近 0.96。到时，一整年的total EPS有 4.21 cents。给个PE 10的估计，Mmode的股价也有个 42 cents了。
中期来看，就要看FY19 第几个季度可以得到 RM 260.57 million project的贡献。对笔者而言，Mmode接下来数月最有可能的颠峰季度业绩应该是FY 19 Q1和FY19 Q2，因为这两个季度会包含H20 project的贡献(H20 project预期在FY19 Q2全数完成)。若这两个季度可以包含H2O (估计一个季度贡献13 million revenue, 0.78 million profit) 加上 Jun 8 2018得到的RM260.57 million contract(估计一个季度贡献20 million revenue, 1.2 million profit)的贡献，再加上"Content & Value Added Services" segment 的贡献(估计一个季度贡献2.7 million的 revenue ，0.8 至 1 million的profit)，这两个季度的业绩revenue和profit应该会冲上颠峰，一个季度的EPS可以达到 1.7 cent，股价也非常有可能去到颠峰。所以对笔者而已，Mmode这家公司绝对值得投资个6个月。
长远下来，现金雄厚，就要考验Ong Chee Koen 现任的director的实力了。
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